Weak earnings and even worse conference calls drove United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) and First Republic Bank (FRC) down right from the open, then even lower as the day unfolded. Between these stocks, two of the market’s primary fears came to the forefront—a weakening consumer and problems in the banking system.
Further confirming that the market would not recover from these fears and a lower open was the price action in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which gapped higher and continued higher. TLT is still where risk-off equity money runs to hide and wait.
Lower interest rates, fear, and lower stocks gave SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) reasons to rally out of a reversal pattern. After testing the 184 level and breaking out of an inside day pattern, it’s set up for a potential run higher if it can close over its nearby 10-day moving average and then continue higher. Gold bulls should keep an eye on it.
UPS is the obvious reason that iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) was the biggest loser in the sector summary table today. If you’ve been reading this Daily over the last couple of days, then the second biggest loser, discussed below, won’t surprise you. Additionally, the intraday patterns we’ve been discussing based on the Opening Range did their job today by highlighting that it was not a good day to try to buy the lower open and instead, it would be a trend day lower.
The second biggest losing sector was, as we’ve been following, semiconductors, using the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as a proxy. Today’s anticipated breakdown puts SMH well below its 50-day moving average (MA), while the SPDR s&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) are still above their 50-day MAs. Until it gets back over its 50-day MA or develops a bullish reversal pattern, this should be avoided.
Every sector was down today, so there will likely be more trend-down days in the near term. Today was a good example of how to recognize and avoid them. Below, you’ll see the intraday charts of the SPY and QQQ, with the Opening Range levels marked by the red and green horizontal lines.
Today was a good example of an OR breakdown in the SPY that attempts to reverse, but it was not confirmed by the QQQ.
After the failure of the QQQ to trade back over its OR low, the retracements to the OR low pattern in both the SPY and QQQ became confirmed bearish trend continuation patterns, and the trend down day resumed with a vengeance.
This is the busiest period of earnings season, so every day has the potential to be filled with surprises. Keep an open mind and a disciplined approach to your trading.
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Mish in the Media
Mish and Benzinga discuss the current trading ranges and what might break them.
Mish discusses what she’ll be talking about at The Money Show, from April 24-26!
Mish walks you through technical analysis of TSLA and market conditions and presents an action plan on CMC Markets.
Mish presents two stocks to look at in this appearance on Business First AM — one bullish, one bearish.
Mish joins David Keller on the Thursday, May 13 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her charts of high yield bonds, semiconductors, gold, and regional banks.
Mish joins Wolf Financial for this Twitter Spaces event, where she and others discuss their experiences as former pit traders.
Mish shares her views on natural gas, crude oil and a selection of ETFs in this appearance on CMC Markets.
Mish talks what’s next for the economy on Yahoo! Finance.
Mish joins Bob Lang of Explosive Options for a special webinar on what traders can expect in 2023!
Rosanna Prestia of The RO Show chats with Mish about commodities, macro and markets.
Mish and Charles Payne rip through lots of stock picks in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.
Coming Up:
April 24-26th: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas — two presentations and a book giveaway
April 28th: Live Coaching Complete Trader and TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides
May 2nd-5th: StockCharts TV Market Outlook
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY): The new range to watch is 405-410 on a closing basis.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support–180 resistance.
- Dow (DIA): Over the 23-month MA 333–support to hold.
- Nasdaq (QQQ): 306 support, over 320 better.
- Regional Banks (KRE): 44 now pivotal resistance.
- Semiconductors (SMH): 245 resistance, with support at 235.
- Transportation (IYT): Still under the 23-month MA with 224 resistance; 215 is Real Motion support.
- Biotechnology (IBB): 130 major pivotal area–135 resistance.
- Retail (XRT): 58-64 trading range to break one way or another.
Geoff Bysshe
MarketGauge.com
President